Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008092 0.009131 0.010270 0.011613 0.013157 0.014881 0.016957
2024-10-20 0.006196 0.007537 0.009136 0.011193 0.013788 0.016973 0.021212
2024-10-27 0.005195 0.006634 0.008446 0.010918 0.014236 0.018584 0.024789
2024-11-03 0.004605 0.006117 0.008108 0.010959 0.014990 0.020570 0.029029
2024-11-10 0.004293 0.005904 0.008113 0.011413 0.016305 0.023430 0.034849
2024-11-17 0.003855 0.005456 0.007725 0.011240 0.016662 0.024906 0.038775
2024-11-24 0.003552 0.005161 0.007513 0.011281 0.017315 0.026871 0.043707
2024-12-01 0.003228 0.004800 0.007158 0.011049 0.017491 0.028072 0.047506
2024-12-08 0.003056 0.004650 0.007105 0.011278 0.018424 0.030607 0.053966
2024-12-15 0.002853 0.004429 0.006918 0.011260 0.018926 0.032448 0.059418
2024-12-22 0.002579 0.004073 0.006478 0.010769 0.018541 0.032650 0.061760
2024-12-29 0.002417 0.003885 0.006297 0.010704 0.018904 0.034254 0.067090
2025-01-05 0.002370 0.003891 0.006453 0.011267 0.020525 0.038516 0.078765
2025-01-12 0.002166 0.003613 0.006097 0.010867 0.020275 0.039093 0.082687
2025-01-19 0.002005 0.003396 0.005829 0.010601 0.020248 0.040110 0.087751
2025-01-26 0.001904 0.003278 0.005727 0.010640 0.020840 0.042492 0.096415
2025-02-02 0.001865 0.003269 0.005826 0.011080 0.022309 0.046976 0.111048
2025-02-09 0.001752 0.003113 0.005632 0.010912 0.022459 0.048521 0.118543
2025-02-16 0.001673 0.003016 0.005545 0.010952 0.023066 0.051203 0.129562
2025-02-23 0.001571 0.002866 0.005342 0.010728 0.023049 0.052382 0.136675
2025-03-02 0.001526 0.002824 0.005347 0.010949 0.024086 0.056296 0.152399
2025-03-09 0.001458 0.002733 0.005248 0.010932 0.024553 0.058838 0.164624
2025-03-16 0.001350 0.002554 0.004956 0.010457 0.023856 0.058251 0.167118